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Over the summer, the price of XRP ( XRP +2.16% ) looked ready to dip below the $1 mark. Today, XRP trades for $1.50, a stunning 50% reversal of fortune that nobody saw coming. Is this mini-rally a sign of things to come for XRP?
Or will XRP continue to over-promise and under-deliver? Let's take a closer look. The case for buying XRP Admittedly, XRP looks like a real bargain right now.
After all, it's trading nearly 60% below its highs from last summer. And how much has really changed between now and then? Ripple , the company behind the XRP token, continues to build out an end-to-end blockchain payment infrastructure featuring XRP.
Over the past year, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has become a fixture at White House crypto events, and Ripple was one of the biggest fintech companies pushing for passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act ("Clarity Act"). Image source: Getty Images. The case for buying XRP, then, revolves around the growing pace of institutional adoption of blockchain-based payment solutions.
There are already dozens of financial institutions using the Ripple payment network. As more join their ranks, that should help to apply upward pressure on the price of XRP. At the same time, new spot XRP ETFs launched at the end of last year.
Theoretically, there should now be a floor under XRP's price. That might help to explain why it only briefly dipped below the $1 mark during the summer before recovering. The case against buying XRP Despite all the hype and buzz surrounding XRP, it has never traded above $3.84, and that was more than eight years ago!
Therefore, the true upside potential for XRP might only be $4. Given its current price of $1.50, that's not nearly enough upside to compensate investors for the risk they are taking on. Today's Change ( 2.16 %) $ 0.03 Current Price $ 1.57 Moreover, the Clarity Act failed to pass the Senate, leaving its future prospects very much in doubt.
So maybe the pace of institutional adoption will stall out, leaving XRP in the lurch. There's simply too much regulatory risk for some institutions to take on if they decide to adopt blockchain payment rails. Finally, stablecoins have stolen some of the thunder from XRP.
Even Ripple realizes this, as it is now emphasizing payment solutions featuring the Ripple USD ( RLUSD -0.01% ) stablecoin. Ultimately, stablecoins are stable: They always trade for $1. In contrast, XRP's value can fluctuate wildly, making it less suitable for payments.
Bullish on Ripple, bearish on XRP? Right now, Ripple is valued at $50 billion, making it one of the biggest fintech companies in the world. The company has the attention of both Wall Street and the White House.
As a result, I'm very bullish on the company's long-term prospects. Unfortunately, I'm not as bullish on XRP. Even if everything goes according to plan, XRP might only double in value over the next 12 months, reaching $3.
But can it really go much higher than that? If history is any guide, the ceiling for XRP is $4.
Source: The Motley Fool
